Oil Prices Today: Why Brent Crude Hit $106 and What's Next

Oil prices surged to their highest level in almost a month on Monday, October 12, 2026, as a wave of attacks across the Middle East rattled the global energy market. Brent crude, the international benchmark, settled at $106.65 a barrel — a jump of $1.93, or 1.8% — while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 2% to $93.74.

The rally reversed earlier declines and sent a clear signal: the market is pricing in a genuine risk that crude supplies from the world's most important oil region could be disrupted for months, not days. For drivers, airlines and businesses, the spike raises the prospect of higher fuel costs heading into the final quarter of 2026.

Brent at $106.65: What Just Happened

Monday's session was a tug-of-war between two competing narratives — and the bulls won. Early on, oil fell on hopes of more Russian diesel exports and a declared "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine that President Trump announced.

Then the market got a reminder of the Middle East's reality. News of fresh Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and renewed tanker incidents near the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent back up, closing at its highest settlement since September 15.

Timeline: Three Days That Shook the Oil Market

Date	Event	Market Impact
Sat Oct 10	Houthis claim attacks on Saudi Arabia; drone strikes a tanker near Sohar, Oman	Supply-risk premium rises
Sun Oct 11	Further Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia; two merchant ships attacked in the Strait of Hormuz — the MT Petro Dolphin hit by a drone (2 Indian sailors missing) and the MT Valthera hit by a projectile and caught fire	India condemns attacks; Iran's blockade of Hormuz back in focus
Mon Oct 12	India's NSA Ajit Doval speaks with Iranian counterpart Mohsin Rezaei; Riyadh airport closure extended to Oct 17; Etihad cancels Abu Dhabi–Riyadh flights to Oct 19; UK sanctions two Iranian citizens over alleged attack plots	Brent settles at $106.65 (+1.8%); WTI at $93.74 (+2%)

The two vessels — the Nicaragua-flagged MT Petro Dolphin and the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker MT Valthera — were together carrying 23 Indian sailors, The Hindu reported. Two crew members from the Petro Dolphin remain missing, while all 11 sailors on the Valthera are safe after a fire aboard.

The Strait of Hormuz: Why This Waterway Controls Oil Prices

If you only understand one thing about oil prices, make it this: the Strait of Hormuz is the jugular vein of the global energy trade. Roughly a fifth of the world's petroleum liquids pass through this narrow channel between Iran and Oman.

• ~11.9 million barrels per day currently transit the strait — nearly 30% below normal volumes, according to analytics group Kpler
• The IMF has sharply downgraded Gulf growth forecasts this week
• Iran has enforced a blockade of the waterway for several months, and the Petro Dolphin and Valthera attacks are the latest in a string of tanker incidents there this month

Saudi Arabia Under Fire: Riyadh Airport Closure Extended

The conflict between the Iran-backed Houthis and Saudi Arabia is escalating. The Houthis have launched further attacks against the kingdom, prompting authorities to extend the closure of Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport until October 17. Etihad Airways cancelled its Abu Dhabi–Riyadh services until October 19.

It is a stark illustration of how energy shocks reshape entire economies — something economists studying the macroeconomics of energy crises have been warning about all year.

The Ukraine Angle: Trump, Zelensky and the Diesel Factor

The Middle East is not the only geopolitical front moving oil markets. Ukraine has become a second source of supply anxiety:

• President Zelensky has vowed to continue retaliatory strikes against Russian oil refineries, defying orders from President Trump to stop
• Trump blamed those strikes for record diesel prices in the US
• The US president then concluded a deal with Vladimir Putin allowing American purchases of Russian diesel, and announced a ceasefire in energy attacks — an announcement that surprised Kyiv; Moscow had not responded as of Monday
• Hours after the ceasefire announcement, Russia reportedly struck Ukrainian energy targets — showing just how fragile the arrangement is

With US midterm elections on November 3 — and polls swinging toward Democratic control of Congress — diesel and gasoline prices are a live political pressure point, much as oil shocks have influenced elections elsewhere, where oil revenues and fuel costs dominate the debate.

What Happens Next: $120 or a Ceasefire?

• Bullish case: If Hormuz attacks continue and tanker traffic keeps falling, Brent could test $120 — analysts already attribute more than $20 per barrel of the current price to geopolitical risk premium alone
• Base case: Goldman Sachs has raised its December 2026 Brent forecast to $90, implying some de-escalation from current levels
• Bearish case: A durable Russia–Ukraine energy ceasefire, additional Russian diesel exports, and reopened Hormuz routes could send Brent back below $95

The IMF's new projections underline the stakes. Its October 13 World Economic Outlook expects the broader Middle East and Central Asia region to contract 0.3% in 2026, with the UAE economy shrinking 3.9%, Saudi Arabia 3.3%, Kuwait 16.7%, Qatar 15.6% and Iraq 16%. Oman is the lone GCC economy still expected to grow, thanks to export routes outside Hormuz.

For ordinary consumers, the practical takeaway is simple: fill up sooner rather than later if you expect prices to keep rising — and if fuel costs are squeezing your budget, it may be time to build a side income stream that can absorb the extra expense.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why are oil prices rising today?

Brent crude hit $106.65 on October 12, 2026, driven by Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, two tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, and Ukraine's continued strikes on Russian refineries — all of which threaten global oil supplies.

Is the Strait of Hormuz blocked?

Iran has enforced a blockade there for several months. Tanker transit is running at about 11.9 million barrels per day, nearly 30% below normal volumes, per Kpler. The October 11 attacks on the MT Petro Dolphin and MT Valthera have heightened fears of further disruption.

How much oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz?

Under normal conditions, roughly a fifth of the world's petroleum liquids — around 17 million barrels per day — flow through the strait between Iran and Oman.

Will petrol and diesel prices go up?

Likely, if Brent stays above $105. Crude oil is the biggest cost component of fuel prices, and the current spike follows weeks of elevated energy costs.

Could Brent crude reach $120 a barrel?

It is possible if Hormuz shipping deteriorates further or Saudi infrastructure suffers more damage — analysts estimate geopolitical risk already accounts for more than $20 of the current price. A genuine ceasefire or de-escalation in the Gulf would cap the rally.

What did the IMF say about the Gulf economy?

The IMF's October 13, 2026 World Economic Outlook projects a 3.9% contraction for the UAE economy this year, with similar downgrades across the Gulf, driven by the prolonged Hormuz closure.