Blind Boxes: The Psychology Behind the Mystery Collectibles Business

Why are millions of people buying toys without knowing what they are getting? From Pop Mart's Labubu phenomenon to rare figures selling for extraordinary prices, blind boxes reveal how curiosity, psychology, social media and scarcity can turn a small purchase into a global business.

Introduction: The Little Box That Makes People Hold Their Breath

Imagine walking into a brightly lit shop. On the shelves are dozens of small, beautifully designed boxes. Each one belongs to the same collection. The packaging displays several possible characters, but there is one important detail: you cannot see which character is inside.

You choose one.

You pay for it, carry it home, open the packaging and discover a tiny figure staring back at you. Perhaps it is exactly the character you wanted. Perhaps it is a duplicate. Or perhaps you have just found the rare version that collectors have been discussing online for weeks.

For a few seconds, the entire experience revolves around a simple question: What did I get?

That moment explains much of the commercial power behind blind boxes.

Blind boxes have become one of the most interesting examples of modern consumer psychology. They combine traditional collecting with surprise, limited availability, character design, online entertainment and the possibility of finding something valuable. What looks like an ordinary toy purchase can become an emotional experience, a social activity and, occasionally, a speculative financial decision.

The phenomenon became particularly visible through China's Pop Mart and its internationally recognised character Labubu. But blind boxes are no longer limited to one company or one character. Similar mystery-based products appear in toy shops, shopping malls, vending machines, online marketplaces and social-media shopping channels.

The search interest reflects that expansion. A third-party keyword dataset updated in August 2026 estimates approximately 301,000 average monthly searches for the phrase "blind box." The two-year growth estimate used in this article is approximately 363%. These are commercial keyword estimates rather than an official count of all Google searches. Search-volume providers use different databases, locations and measurement methods, so the figures should be treated as indicators of interest rather than exact measurements of consumer purchases.

But the real story is not simply that people like toys.

It is that businesses have discovered how to sell the experience of not knowing what comes next.

1. What Exactly Is a Blind Box?

A blind box is a sealed package containing one randomly selected product from a known collection. The customer usually knows the collection's theme and the possible characters but cannot identify the exact item before opening the package.

For example, a collection might contain twelve different miniature animals. Each box contains one figure. Eleven characters are displayed in the product catalogue, while a twelfth is described as a secret or hidden edition.

The customer is not buying a particular animal. The customer is buying a chance to receive one.

That distinction changes the shopping experience.

In ordinary retail, the customer examines the available products, compares their features and chooses the desired item. In a blind-box purchase, the decision is made before the exact product is revealed.

This creates two separate experiences:

• The purchase: Choosing a box and accepting uncertainty.
• The reveal: Discovering the result and deciding whether it is satisfying.

The second experience is the foundation of the business model.

Blind boxes have historical connections to Japanese lucky bags, known as fukubukuro, and capsule-toy or gacha systems. In these traditions, buyers receive an unexpected selection rather than choosing a specific item. Modern designer-toy companies have developed the idea into carefully designed collectible series with recurring characters, different editions and limited releases.

The modern version is more sophisticated than simply placing random toys inside cardboard.

A typical series may contain:

• Several standard characters.
• Different designs with a shared artistic identity.
• A secret figure with a lower advertised probability.
• Special editions or seasonal variations.
• Collectible packaging and accessories.
• A secondary market where collectors trade duplicates and rare pieces.

The system encourages people to think beyond one purchase. Instead of asking whether they want one toy, they begin asking whether they want the complete collection.

That is a much more powerful commercial proposition.

2. Why Are Blind Boxes Attracting So Much Attention in 2026?

Blind boxes sit at the intersection of several consumer trends.

First, people increasingly discover products through short-form video. An ordinary shopping experience becomes entertainment when a creator records the opening, reacts to the result and shares the moment with an audience.

Second, designer toys have developed a strong visual identity. Many figures are designed to function as small pieces of art, accessories, desk decorations or fashion statements.

Third, social media allows collectors to turn individual purchases into community experiences. People exchange information about releases, compare collections, identify rare figures and organise trades.

Fourth, the mystery element gives even a relatively inexpensive purchase a sense of occasion.

The trend is also commercially visible. Reuters reported in November 2025 that major toy companies were introducing their own blind-box products following the Labubu phenomenon. Hasbro, Mattel and other manufacturers were adapting familiar characters and brands to mystery packaging.

That development is important.

When a successful business model spreads beyond its original specialist market and attracts established toy manufacturers, it suggests that the appeal is not limited to one viral character.

The mystery itself has become a product feature.

However, popularity should not be confused with permanent growth. By late October 2026, Pop Mart had reported a significant year-on-year revenue decline in its third-quarter business update. The company said overall revenue was down 45–50% compared with the same quarter of 2025. The decline varied across regions, with particularly large decreases in the Americas and Asia-Pacific outside mainland China. The figures were preliminary and unaudited.

This suggests that blind-box collecting can remain an established retail format even when the popularity of a particular character or product cycle begins to cool.

3. The Psychology of Mystery: Why Not Knowing Feels Exciting

The first psychological mechanism is curiosity.

Human beings naturally seek information when they encounter something incomplete or uncertain. A closed box creates an information gap: the buyer knows that something is inside but does not yet know exactly what it is.

The mind begins generating possibilities.

What if it is the character I wanted? What if it is the secret edition? What if I finally complete my collection?

The box becomes a small unanswered question.

This is different from buying a product whose appearance and features are already known. With a normal purchase, most of the satisfaction comes from receiving something expected. With a blind box, part of the satisfaction comes from discovering something unexpected.

The anticipation itself becomes valuable.

The Reward of Uncertainty

Psychological research has investigated how uncertain rewards affect purchasing behaviour.

A 2022 study on blind-box products found that perceived uncertainty positively influenced consumers' impulsive purchase intentions, with curiosity playing an important mediating role. The study also identified perceived luck as a factor that strengthened the relationship between uncertainty and purchase intention.

A separate 2025 study, published in BMC Psychology, examined 434 valid responses from Chinese blind-box consumers.

The researchers found that perceived uncertainty positively affected instant gratification and gambler's fallacy. Both mechanisms helped explain the relationship between uncertainty and irrational purchasing behaviour. Perceived scarcity also strengthened the influence of gambler's fallacy.

These findings do not mean that every person who buys a blind box behaves irrationally. They show that uncertainty can create psychological conditions in which people become more willing to make repeated purchases.

Consider two situations.

In the first, you see a figure you like and buy it for €15. You know exactly what you are receiving.

In the second, you pay €15 for a sealed box that may contain the same figure or one of several alternatives.

The second purchase contains an additional experience: anticipation.

You are paying for both the object and the possibility of surprise.

Why the Reveal Matters

The reveal is a small emotional event.

There is a moment before opening when the outcome is unknown. Then the packaging comes away, the figure appears and the uncertainty disappears.

The result may create happiness, disappointment, amusement or renewed motivation.

Even a duplicate can become an interesting moment if the collector enjoys trading with friends.

This is one reason blind boxes work particularly well in videos. The audience experiences the same information gap as the person opening the package.

The creator does not need to manufacture a complicated story. The box already contains the central question.

4. The Variable-Reward Effect: Why One Purchase Can Become Ten

One of the most important mechanisms behind blind boxes is the variable reward.

A variable reward is an outcome that changes unpredictably from one attempt to another.

Imagine a person checking their phone for messages. Sometimes there is something interesting. Sometimes there is nothing. Because the outcome is uncertain, checking can become a repeated behaviour.

Blind boxes introduce a similar pattern into shopping.

A person may receive a figure they like on the first attempt. The next box may contain a duplicate. Another purchase might finally produce the desired character.

The reward is not guaranteed, and that unpredictability can make the experience compelling.

It is important, however, not to claim that every blind-box purchase is equivalent to gambling. A physical collectible is a tangible product, and many buyers understand the risks and enjoy the activity without experiencing harmful spending behaviour.

Nevertheless, the comparison becomes relevant when the commercial design encourages repeated attempts to obtain a particular outcome.

The Mathematics of Trying Again

Consider a hypothetical collection containing twelve equally likely characters.

Assume that each purchase is an independent draw, that all twelve characters have identical probabilities and that there are no special case-level distribution rules.

The probability of receiving one particular character in a single purchase is:

P = 1/12 = 8.33%

The probability of receiving that character at least once after five purchases is:

P = 1 - (11/12)⁵

That is approximately 35.3%.

After ten purchases, the probability rises to approximately 58.1%.

After twenty purchases, it reaches approximately 82.4%.

But notice something important: even after twenty purchases, success is not guaranteed.

The average number of independent purchases needed to obtain one particular character is twelve. Completing the entire twelve-character collection takes considerably longer on average because duplicates become increasingly likely as the collection fills up.

Under the same assumptions, the expected number of purchases needed to collect all twelve characters is approximately 37.2.

These numbers are illustrative, not the actual odds of any Pop Mart collection. Real products may have unequal probabilities, special editions, case configurations or distribution rules that change the mathematics.

The example demonstrates why completing a collection through random purchases can become expensive.

The Gambler's Fallacy

Another psychological trap is the gambler's fallacy.

This occurs when someone mistakenly believes that an outcome becomes more likely simply because it has not appeared recently.

Imagine opening five boxes without finding the secret figure.

You might think:

"I have already missed it five times. Surely the next one has a better chance."

But if every box is an independent draw with the same probability, the previous results do not improve the next probability.

The sixth box has the same odds as the first.

This is particularly important when buyers begin spending more because they feel they are getting closer to the desired result.

A useful question is not, "How many boxes have I already opened?"

It is, "Would I still pay this amount if I knew exactly which figure I was going to receive?"

If the answer is no, the mystery may be driving the decision more than the product itself.

5. Scarcity, Secret Figures and the Fear of Missing Out

Scarcity is another major component of blind-box marketing.

A product becomes psychologically more attractive when people believe that access to it is limited.

This principle is visible across many industries. Fashion brands release limited collections. Technology companies create special editions. Event organisers sell a restricted number of tickets.

Blind-box companies can combine scarcity with uncertainty.

A standard figure may be relatively common, while a secret edition is distributed at a lower probability. A seasonal release may be available only for a limited period.

These conditions create several questions in the consumer's mind:

• What if the collection sells out?
• What if this character becomes difficult to find?
• What if the secret figure becomes more valuable?
• What if I miss the release and have to pay more later?

The fear of missing out, often called FOMO, can transform a relaxed hobby into a race against availability.

Why Secret Editions Are So Attractive

Secret figures serve more than one purpose.

They add an additional objective to the collection, create conversation among fans and give the product series a hierarchy of rarity.

A collector who already owns the standard characters may continue purchasing because the collection still contains an unresolved possibility.

The secret edition becomes the missing piece.

This is particularly effective when the brand makes the figure visually distinctive or connects it to a memorable character story.

However, rarity is not automatically the same as value.

A figure can be difficult to obtain without having a large resale market. A rare item may also lose its premium if the company releases more stock, introduces a similar design or consumer interest moves elsewhere.

Scarcity creates attention. It does not guarantee lasting demand.

6. Unboxing: When Shopping Becomes Entertainment

The blind-box business is closely connected to the rise of unboxing videos.

Unboxing is a form of digital entertainment in which someone records the process of opening a product and discovering what is inside.

The format works particularly well for mystery collectibles because the result is unknown to both the creator and the audience.

The video contains a natural beginning, middle and ending:

1. The creator presents the sealed package.
2. The audience sees the collection possibilities.
3. The packaging is opened.
4. The figure is revealed.
5. The creator reacts and evaluates the result.

This simple structure creates suspense without requiring a complicated script.

It also makes the viewer feel involved.

A person watching a video may have no intention of purchasing a collectible. Yet after seeing several reveals, they may begin recognising characters, learning the collection's terminology and developing a preference.

The product becomes familiar before the viewer even visits a shop.

The Social-Media Feedback Loop

A successful blind-box video can inspire another person to purchase a box and record their own reveal.

That creates a cycle:

Product launch → unboxing videos → curiosity → purchases → new videos → wider attention.

Creators provide entertainment. Brands gain exposure. Collectors receive a platform to share their discoveries.

The relationship can be mutually beneficial, but it also creates commercial pressure.

When viewers repeatedly see rare figures appearing in videos, they may overestimate how frequently those figures are actually found.

A creator might upload a successful reveal because it is exciting content. Hundreds of ordinary openings that produce common figures are less likely to become viral videos.

This creates a visibility bias.

The audience sees the extraordinary results more often than the ordinary ones.

As a result, the experience can appear more rewarding than it really is.

7. Pop Mart and Labubu: How a Character Became a Global Phenomenon

Few examples illustrate the commercial power of blind boxes better than Pop Mart.

The Chinese company developed a business around designer toys, original characters, collectible series and mystery-based retail experiences.

Its portfolio includes characters such as Molly, Skullpanda, Crybaby and the Monsters family.

The most internationally recognisable character in that family is Labubu.

Created by artist Kasing Lung, Labubu has a distinctive appearance: pointed ears, an unusual smile and a row of sharp-looking teeth. Its design is deliberately different from the conventional image of a cute toy.

That difference helped make it recognisable.

From Designer Character to Fashion Accessory

Labubu became particularly visible through social media and celebrity attention.

Reuters reported in October 2025 that celebrity fans, including Blackpink's Lisa, Rihanna and David Beckham, had helped amplify demand for the character. Labubu products were increasingly seen as bag charms and fashion accessories rather than simply toys.

This changed the product's cultural position.

A small collectible could now function as:

• A decorative accessory.
• A conversation starter.
• A sign of participation in an online trend.
• A gift.
• A symbol of belonging to a collector community.

The character was no longer restricted to the toy shelf.

It had entered fashion, social media and everyday personal expression.

The Business Numbers Behind the Phenomenon

Pop Mart's financial results illustrate how powerful the character-driven business became.

For the full year 2025, Pop Mart reported revenue of approximately RMB37.12 billion, up 184.7% from the previous year. Its profit attributable to shareholders reached approximately RMB12.78 billion.

The Monsters family, which includes Labubu, was one of its most important intellectual properties.

However, the 2026 results reveal a more complicated picture.

In its first-half 2026 results, Pop Mart reported revenue of RMB17.17 billion, an increase of 23.8% year on year. The Monsters family generated RMB4.45 billion, representing 26% of total revenue, compared with 34.7% in the corresponding period of 2025. Other characters, including Twinkle Twinkle and Crybaby, also contributed significantly.

Then came the October 27, 2026 business update.

Pop Mart reported an unaudited 45–50% decline in overall third-quarter revenue compared with the same quarter in 2025.

The regional declines were:

• Mainland China: 25–30%.
• Asia-Pacific excluding mainland China: 65–70%.
• Americas: 70–75%.
• Europe and other regions: 50–55%.

The company also reported that its Chinese offline channel declined less sharply than its online channel. These were preliminary figures, not audited final results.

This is a significant development.

The figures demonstrate that even an enormously successful collectible character cannot guarantee continuous growth. A viral phenomenon can create extraordinary demand, but attention can shift, comparison periods can become difficult and consumers can move towards new characters.

For the blind-box industry, the lesson is clear: the mystery model may survive longer than any individual craze.

8. The Business Model: How Companies Make Money from Mystery

Blind boxes are commercially attractive because they change the relationship between the customer and the product range.

In conventional retail, a person who finds their preferred figure may complete the purchase and leave.

In a blind-box system, discovering a preferred figure is not always the end of the shopping journey.

It can become the reason to purchase again.

The customer may want another figure, a rare version or the remaining pieces of the series.

This can increase the number of transactions generated by one collection.

The Economics of Repeat Purchases

A simplified example illustrates the model.

Imagine a company sells a collection of ten characters. Each sealed box costs €12.

A customer who wants one specific character may purchase several boxes before finding it.

Another customer may decide to collect all ten.

A third may buy duplicates to exchange with friends.

The company has created several different reasons for repeated transactions from the same product series.

This does not mean every customer will purchase repeatedly. Some will buy one box and stop. Others will choose complete sets where available.

But the random format creates a commercial possibility that conventional single-item retail does not necessarily provide.

The Importance of Intellectual Property

A successful blind-box business needs more than mystery packaging.

The characters must be desirable.

A generic toy with random colours may attract some attention, but a recognisable character with a personality, visual identity and fan community can develop much stronger demand.

This is why intellectual property is central to the business.

A successful character can appear in multiple formats:

• Miniature figures.
• Plush toys.
• Keychains.
• Fashion accessories.
• Seasonal collections.
• Special collaborations.
• Larger display models.
• Licensed merchandise.

The company can build a long-term commercial identity around the character rather than relying on a single product.

Pop Mart's development of several successful character families demonstrates the importance of this strategy.

Why the Model Is Attractive to Retailers

Blind boxes also create useful retail opportunities.

Their relatively small size allows stores to display many designs in limited space. Their packaging can attract attention, and the mystery format gives customers a reason to discuss and share purchases.

Retailers can also build excitement around new collection launches, special editions and restocking announcements.

However, this model depends on trust.

If customers begin to believe that odds are misleading, availability is manipulated or prices are unfair, the excitement can turn into frustration.

Long-term success requires more than keeping the customer curious. It requires convincing the customer that the game is fair.

9. The Resale Market: When a Collectible Becomes a Speculative Asset

A major part of the blind-box phenomenon happens after the original purchase.

Collectors who receive duplicates may sell or exchange them. People who want a particular figure may search for it on resale platforms rather than continuing to purchase random boxes.

This creates a secondary market.

In a healthy collecting community, resale can be useful. It allows people to complete collections, find discontinued pieces and exchange figures they no longer want.

But the same market can also encourage speculation.

Some buyers purchase blind boxes not because they want the figures but because they expect rare editions to become more valuable.

The difference between collecting and investing becomes less clear.

Why Some Figures Become Expensive

Several factors can influence the resale price:

• Rarity: A figure with a genuinely low distribution probability may attract collectors.
• Demand: A character with a large fan base may have more potential buyers.
• Condition: Unopened packaging, original accessories and undamaged figures can affect resale value.
• Availability: A discontinued series may become harder to find.
• Cultural attention: Celebrity appearances, viral videos or collaborations can temporarily increase interest.
• Authenticity: Buyers may pay more for products they can verify as genuine.

These factors do not operate independently. A rare figure without interested buyers may have little resale value.

Likewise, a common character can become expensive if demand temporarily exceeds supply.

The Labubu Resale Roller Coaster

The Labubu market provides a particularly useful example.

In October 2025, Reuters reported that the secondary-market price of the Labubu character Luck had fallen from more than RMB500 in June to around RMB108.

Other characters from the same collection were selling below their official retail prices.

Pop Mart had also increased plush production capacity significantly, reporting production of approximately 30 million units per month.

This shows how quickly a collectible's resale premium can disappear.

When supply increases, buyers may no longer need to pay inflated prices to obtain a figure.

And when social-media attention moves elsewhere, the number of people willing to pay speculative prices may fall.

A useful distinction is necessary here: a falling resale price does not automatically prove that nobody wants the product. It may indicate improved availability, reduced speculation or a change in the mix of buyers.

Reuters also noted that analysts cautioned against treating second-hand prices as a perfect measure of underlying consumer demand.

Can Blind Boxes Be Investments?

For most ordinary collectors, treating blind boxes as investments is risky.

Unlike traditional financial assets, collectibles do not generate income simply by being owned. Their resale value depends on future buyers, authenticity, condition and changing cultural preferences.

A figure purchased for €20 could eventually sell for €100. It could also remain worth €10 or become difficult to sell at all.

The original retail price does not create a guaranteed minimum resale value.

There is another important issue: the cost of obtaining the figure.

Suppose someone spends €120 opening ten boxes in pursuit of a rare character and eventually sells that figure for €80.

The sale might look impressive compared with the price of one box, but the overall activity has still produced a loss before considering fees, shipping and time.

Collectors should distinguish between the market value of one object and the total amount spent trying to obtain it.

10. Why Adults Collect Toys: Nostalgia, Identity and Emotional Value

It is tempting to assume that blind boxes are mainly a children's activity.

The reality is more complicated.

Adults are an important part of the designer-toy market. Some have disposable income, established hobbies and an interest in art, design and character culture.

Others simply enjoy the experience of collecting.

A 2021 systematic review of consumer collecting research identified six broad motivations:

1. Achievement through collecting goals.
2. Social membership.
3. Cooperation and competition.
4. Personal and societal memories.
5. Legacy.
6. Financial value.

The review examined 51 journal articles and brought together more than three decades of research on collecting behaviour.

These motivations help explain why a small figure can have meaning beyond its physical size.

Nostalgia and Childhood Memories

For some adults, collecting reconnects them with childhood interests.

A character may remind them of an animated series, a favourite toy or a period of life when collecting was a source of happiness.

The object becomes a small connection to a familiar memory.

Nostalgia can also make collecting feel emotionally comforting.

An adult who spends much of the day working, managing responsibilities or dealing with uncertainty may enjoy having a small hobby that offers something colourful and predictable.

The pleasure is not necessarily about escaping adulthood. It may simply be about preserving an enjoyable part of personal identity.

Personal Identity and Self-Expression

People often use objects to express their interests.

A collector might display figures on a desk, place a plush toy on a backpack or arrange an entire shelf around a particular character.

The collection becomes part of the person's environment.

Different characters can communicate different moods or preferences. Some designs are humorous, some unusual, some nostalgic and others aesthetically sophisticated.

For many people, the appeal is similar to collecting books, watches, records or miniature models.

The objects are not necessarily useful in a practical sense. Their value comes from what they represent.

Community and Belonging

Collecting can also create friendships.

People share photographs, exchange duplicates, discuss new releases and help each other identify authentic products.

A person who owns one figure may discover an entire community of people with similar interests.

The collection becomes a social language.

Instead of simply saying, "I bought a toy," someone can discuss a particular edition, its designer, its production history and the characters they are still trying to find.

This sense of belonging is especially important in online communities where people may live in different countries but share the same hobby.

The Satisfaction of Completing Something

Modern life contains many unfinished tasks.

Collecting offers a small, visible goal.

A collector can see the progress of a series: three figures owned, four remaining, one secret edition missing.

Completing the collection produces a sense of achievement.

The danger appears when the goal becomes more important than the enjoyment.

If a person feels unable to stop because the collection is incomplete, the hobby may have shifted from recreation to pressure.

The healthiest collectors recognise that a collection does not need to be perfect to be meaningful.

11. The Environmental Cost of the Blind-Box Experience

The mystery may be small, but the environmental questions are not.

Every blind-box purchase involves materials, manufacturing, transportation and packaging.

Depending on the product, the figure may be made from plastic, vinyl, fabric or a combination of materials.

The packaging may include a cardboard box, an inner foil or plastic bag, protective inserts, labels and an external shipping package.

The unboxing experience often requires several layers to be removed before the collectible is revealed.

This is part of the attraction.

It also creates waste.

Why Mystery Packaging Can Increase Material Use

In July 2025, Packaging Insights reported concerns raised by Canadian researchers about the environmental implications of blind-box packaging.

The report described the multiple layers commonly associated with Labubu purchases, including external shopping or shipping packaging, cardboard containers, individual blind boxes and plastic or foil bags around the toys.

Researchers argued that the packaging is not merely protective. It also contributes to the suspense and ritual of opening the product.

This creates an interesting design problem.

Ordinary packaging mainly protects and presents a product. Blind-box packaging also hides information.

The material itself becomes part of the entertainment.

That makes it harder to remove unnecessary layers without changing the customer experience.

Why Collectible Figures Can Be Difficult to Recycle

Small figures are not always easy to recycle.

A product may contain multiple materials, paints, adhesives, fabric, plastic components and decorative accessories.

Separating these materials can be difficult, particularly when the components are small or permanently attached.

In March 2026, Nanyang Technological University published commentary on the potential environmental impact of blind-box products. It highlighted concerns about PVC, recycling difficulties and the way repeated purchases can increase waste.

The concern is not limited to the packaging.

A collection of unwanted duplicate figures can also become a waste problem if owners eventually throw them away.

The Other Side: Industry Sustainability Efforts

The issue deserves a balanced examination.

Pop Mart's 2025 annual-report information describes efforts to use FSC-certified packaging materials, environmentally friendly inks, recyclable paper trays and alternative biodegradable bags in multiple product lines.

These are useful steps, but they do not automatically make every product or package environmentally sustainable.

A recyclable box does not solve the problem of unwanted duplicates. A biodegradable bag does not necessarily mean that a mixed-material toy can be recycled.

The industry needs to consider the entire product lifecycle:

• What materials are used?
• How much packaging is necessary?
• Can components be separated?
• Can figures be repaired?
• Can unwanted figures be exchanged or reused?
• Can manufacturers establish take-back programmes?

Collecting can be enjoyable without requiring every purchase to create another disposable object.

12. Consumer Protection: Where Does the Mystery Become a Problem?

Blind boxes are not automatically unethical or harmful.

The central issue is whether consumers understand the purchase and whether businesses provide fair information.

A mystery product can be perfectly transparent about the possible outcomes.

The buyer may not know which figure is inside, but they should be able to understand the available collection, the relevant probabilities and the terms of purchase.

Problems arise when important information is hidden or misleading.

Examples include:

• Advertising rare figures without explaining their probability.
• Misrepresenting the number of available products.
• Manipulating the apparent scarcity of a collection.
• Selling counterfeit products.
• Making returns unnecessarily difficult.
• Encouraging excessive spending among vulnerable consumers.

China's Blind-Box Guidelines

China's State Administration for Market Regulation issued trial guidelines on blind-box business practices in June 2023.

The guidelines require businesses to disclose important information such as product styles, drawing rules, distribution information, limited-edition quantities, probabilities and value ranges.

They also prohibit manipulating outcomes or changing probabilities in ways that mislead consumers.

The guidance encourages businesses to introduce spending and purchase limits to support rational consumption.

It also prohibits blind-box sales to children under eight and requires parental consent for sales to children aged eight and above.

These rules apply to blind-box businesses operating within mainland China. They should not be confused with universal international regulations.

Nevertheless, they illustrate an important principle: mystery should not mean a lack of accountability.

The Importance of Probability Disclosure

Imagine two companies selling the same twelve-character collection.

Company A clearly explains that the secret figure has a probability of one in 144.

Company B simply describes the figure as extremely rare.

The first company provides information that allows customers to make a more informed decision.

The second leaves buyers to interpret vague marketing language.

Transparency does not remove the surprise. It allows the consumer to decide whether the surprise is worth the price.

13. How to Enjoy Blind Boxes Without Losing Control of Your Spending

Blind boxes do not need to be avoided entirely.

For many people, they are a fun, inexpensive hobby. The challenge is ensuring that the experience remains enjoyable rather than becoming a source of financial pressure.

A few practical habits can make a significant difference.

1. Decide on a Budget Before Entering the Shop

Choose an amount you are comfortable spending on the hobby.

For example, you might decide that your monthly blind-box budget is €25.

Once you reach that limit, stop until the next month.

The important point is to make the decision before the excitement of opening a package influences your judgement.

2. Buy for Enjoyment, Not Expected Profit

Treat the figure as a collectible rather than an investment.

If you receive a character you like, enjoy it.

If you receive a duplicate, consider trading it.

Do not assume that a secret edition will automatically increase in value.

3. Understand the Probabilities

Before purchasing, look for the official collection list and the published probability information.

Remember that rarity does not guarantee resale value.

If the probability is extremely low, calculate whether you are comfortable paying for repeated attempts.

4. Consider Buying the Specific Figure Directly

If your only objective is to own one particular character, buying it from a verified reseller may be cheaper than repeatedly opening random boxes.

For example, imagine that you want one standard figure from a twelve-character collection.

You could spend €12 on one mystery box, then another €12 on a duplicate, and another €12 on a third attempt.

Alternatively, you could purchase the desired figure directly for €20 from a trustworthy seller.

The direct purchase removes the mystery but provides certainty.

It is worth comparing both options.

5. Avoid Shopping When You Are Emotionally Vulnerable

Shopping can become a way of dealing with boredom, stress or disappointment.

A small purchase may temporarily improve your mood, but repeatedly buying mystery products can create a pattern in which spending becomes the main source of excitement.

If you notice that you are purchasing boxes because you feel unhappy rather than because you genuinely enjoy collecting, take a break.

6. Trade Duplicates Instead of Buying More

Collector communities can make duplicates useful.

Instead of opening another box, exchange an unwanted character with another collector.

This can help complete collections without generating additional purchases.

7. Keep the Packaging and Figures Where Possible

If you no longer want a figure, consider selling, gifting or donating it.

Keep packaging if it helps preserve the item or supports resale.

Avoid throwing away perfectly usable collectibles simply because the latest collection has arrived.

8. Recognise When the Hobby Has Stopped Being Fun

Warning signs include:

• Hiding purchases from family members.
• Spending money needed for essentials.
• Feeling anxious when a new collection launches.
• Buying repeatedly to recover money already spent.
• Feeling disappointed even after receiving a rare figure.
• Continuing despite wanting to stop.

These are reasons to pause and reassess the hobby.

The objective is not to complete every collection. It is to enjoy the experience without allowing the experience to control you.

14. What Could the Future of Blind Boxes Look Like?

The blind-box industry has several possible directions.

One possibility is greater diversification.

Pop Mart's 2026 financial results show that its business is not limited to Labubu. Other intellectual properties, including Twinkle Twinkle, Crybaby, Dimoo and Skullpanda, contribute to the company's revenue.

This diversification matters because a business built around a single viral character can become vulnerable when consumer attention changes.

Another possibility is the expansion of collaborations.

Designer-toy brands can work with fashion labels, entertainment franchises, artists and technology companies. These partnerships introduce new audiences and give established characters new forms.

Digital experiences may also become more important.

Collectors could use online platforms to track collections, verify authenticity, exchange duplicates and discover new releases.

However, digital features should not become another way to encourage uncontrolled purchases.

Will Consumers Become Tired of the Mystery?

Possibly.

The October 2026 Pop Mart revenue update demonstrates that demand can change dramatically after a period of extraordinary growth.

When consumers have purchased many figures, the excitement of another release may become less powerful.

Some collectors may already have too many products. Others may move towards new characters, different hobbies or more selective purchasing.

There is also the risk of market saturation.

If every brand launches a mystery collection, the format may lose some of its novelty.

The next successful businesses may therefore be those that offer stronger character design, better quality, fairer probabilities and more sustainable products rather than simply increasing the number of releases.

Could Blind Boxes Become More Transparent?

This is one of the most interesting possibilities.

Companies could retain the mystery while providing clearer information.

For example, they could publish:

• The exact collection contents.
• The probability of each figure.
• The number of secret editions produced.
• The materials used in the product.
• The recycling instructions.
• The return and exchange conditions.

A company does not have to reveal which figure is inside a particular box to be transparent about the system.

In fact, greater transparency may help build consumer trust.

The strongest long-term business model is not necessarily the one that makes people buy the most boxes in one afternoon. It may be the one that gives collectors enough confidence to return for the next collection.

15. The Bigger Lesson: Businesses Are Learning to Sell Emotions

Blind boxes reveal something important about modern consumer culture.

People do not always buy products because they need them.

Sometimes they buy them because they want an experience.

A cup of coffee can be a daily ritual. A concert ticket can be a memory. A collectible can be a connection to a character, a community or a childhood interest.

Blind boxes take this idea one step further by making uncertainty part of the product.

The buyer is not simply purchasing an object. They are purchasing anticipation, possibility and a moment of discovery.

That is a powerful business model.

But it also creates responsibilities.

Companies should make probabilities understandable, avoid misleading scarcity claims, protect younger consumers and consider the environmental cost of repeated purchases.

Collectors, meanwhile, should remember that a collection is supposed to provide enjoyment. A missing character is not a personal failure, and a rare figure is not automatically a valuable investment.

The most interesting part of the blind-box phenomenon may not be the toys themselves.

It may be what they reveal about the way human beings respond to curiosity, uncertainty, belonging and the possibility of getting something special.

The box is small.

The psychology behind it is much bigger.

Key Takeaways

• Blind boxes sell uncertainty: Customers pay for both a physical collectible and the anticipation of discovering what is inside.
• Curiosity encourages repeat purchases: Psychological research links uncertainty with instant gratification, gambler's fallacy and impulsive buying intentions.
• Scarcity increases perceived value: Secret editions and limited releases can create urgency, but rarity does not guarantee lasting resale value.
• Pop Mart demonstrated the commercial potential: Its 2025 revenue reached RMB37.12 billion, although its October 2026 update showed a substantial year-on-year third-quarter decline.
• Labubu became more than a toy: Celebrity attention, fashion accessories and social-media exposure helped turn the character into a global cultural phenomenon.
• Adults collect for different reasons: Nostalgia, self-expression, achievement, social connection and enjoyment all contribute.
• Resale markets are unpredictable: Figures can rise dramatically in price and later fall below their original retail value.
• Environmental concerns matter: Repeated purchases, plastic components and multiple packaging layers create sustainability challenges.
• Transparency protects consumers: Clear probabilities, prices and product information make mystery-based retail fairer.
• Responsible collecting is possible: Set a budget, trade duplicates and purchase specific figures directly when that is more economical.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. What Is a Blind Box?

A blind box is a sealed package containing one randomly selected product from a known collection. Buyers know the possible designs but do not know which specific item they will receive until opening it.

2. Why Are Blind Boxes So Addictive?

Blind boxes can create excitement through curiosity, unpredictable rewards, scarcity and the desire to complete a collection. Research has linked uncertainty with instant gratification and gambler's fallacy. However, not every collector experiences problematic purchasing behaviour.

3. Why Is Labubu So Popular?

Labubu combines distinctive character design, collectible variations, celebrity attention, social-media exposure and a strong fan community. Its use as a fashion accessory also helped expand its audience beyond traditional toy collectors.

4. Is Pop Mart the Company That Invented Blind Boxes?

No. Mystery-based products existed long before Pop Mart, including Japanese lucky bags and capsule-toy systems. Pop Mart helped popularise the modern designer-toy blind-box model internationally.

5. Are Secret Blind-Box Figures Really Rare?

Some secret figures have lower advertised probabilities than standard figures. However, the actual distribution varies by collection. Consumers should consult the manufacturer's published probabilities and avoid assuming that every secret figure has the same rarity.

6. Can You Make Money Selling Rare Blind-Box Figures?

Yes, some figures sell above their original retail prices. However, resale values are unpredictable and can decline quickly when supply increases or interest fades. Collectibles should not be treated as guaranteed investments.

7. Why Do Adults Buy Collectible Toys?

Adults collect for many reasons, including nostalgia, artistic appreciation, self-expression, personal memories, social connection and the satisfaction of completing a collection.

8. Are Blind Boxes Environmentally Harmful?

They can contribute to waste through plastic figures, individual packaging, shipping materials and unwanted duplicates. The environmental impact varies by material, product design, manufacturing process and disposal method.

9. How Can I Avoid Spending Too Much on Blind Boxes?

Set a fixed budget, check published probabilities, avoid buying while emotionally stressed and consider purchasing a specific figure directly instead of repeatedly trying your luck. Trading duplicates can also reduce unnecessary spending.

10. Are Blind Boxes Suitable for Children?

Suitability depends on the product, age rating and the child's ability to understand uncertainty and spending. China's 2023 guidelines prohibit sales to children under eight and require parental consent for children aged eight and above. Other countries may have different rules.

11. Is the Blind-Box Craze Disappearing in 2026?

The market is changing rather than simply disappearing. Pop Mart's October 2026 update showed a significant decline in third-quarter revenue compared with the exceptional performance of 2025. This suggests that individual viral crazes can cool even while the broader collectible format continues.

12. What Is the Difference Between Blind Boxes and Online Loot Boxes?

Blind boxes contain physical products that the customer receives. Online loot boxes usually contain digital rewards, such as game items or character upgrades. Both can involve random outcomes, but their ownership, consumer-protection and regulatory issues are not identical.

Sources and Further Reading

1. The Effect of Doll Blind Box Uncertainty on Consumers' Irrational Consumption Behavior — BMC Psychology, April 2025.
2. Eye-opening! Exploring Uncertainty Marketing Through Hedonic Blind Box Collectibles — Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services.
3. Consumer Collecting Behaviour: A Systematic Review and Future Research Agenda — International Journal of Consumer Studies.
4. Pop Mart's Q3 Revenue Dips 45–50% — The Standard, October 27, 2026.
5. Pop Mart Reports First-Half 2026 Financial Results — August 20, 2026.
6. Labubu Resale Price Falls May Be More About Supply Than Demand — Reuters, October 22, 2025.
7. Reuters Coverage of the Labubu and Designer-Toy Market — Business and consumer-market reporting.
8. The Hidden Cost of the Blind-Box Trend — Nanyang Technological University, March 11, 2026.
9. Researchers Raise Concerns About Blind-Box Packaging — Packaging Insights, July 2025.
10. Guidelines on Blind-Box Business Practices — China's State Administration for Market Regulation, June 2023.
11. Blind Box Keyword Data and Search-Volume Estimates — RankHero, August 2026.
12. Pop Mart Store Photograph — Zhou Guanhuai, Wikimedia Commons, CC0.
13. Capsule Toy Vending Machines Photograph — Bahnfrend, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.

Editorial note: Financial figures and market developments are reported as available in November 2026. Pop Mart's third-quarter 2026 figures are preliminary and unaudited. Search-volume estimates are third-party estimates, not official Google Analytics data. Psychological research describes population-level findings and does not establish that every blind-box collector experiences harmful purchasing behaviour.