COP31 Explained: Can the World Finally Turn Climate Promises Into Action?

The world is gathering in Antalya at a critical moment

Imagine sitting at your kitchen table on a November morning. Your electricity bill has arrived. Outside, the weather is unusually warm for the season. Somewhere on the news, another country is reporting severe flooding, while another is struggling with drought. You hear politicians discussing renewable energy, carbon emissions and climate targets, but the practical question remains: who is going to pay for the changes, and when will ordinary people actually see the difference?

Now imagine that representatives from almost every country in the world are preparing to meet in one Mediterranean city to discuss precisely these questions.

That city is Antalya, Türkiye.

From 9 to 20 November 2026, Antalya will host COP31, the 31st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The conference will bring together government representatives, climate scientists, international organisations, business leaders, environmental groups and civil society.

The World Leaders' Summit will take place on 11 and 12 November, bringing heads of state and government into the discussions.

But COP31 arrives at a particularly uncomfortable moment for international climate diplomacy. The world has spent three decades negotiating climate agreements, announcing emissions targets and promising financial support. Renewable energy is expanding, electric vehicles are becoming more common, and some countries are making genuine progress.

Yet the overall direction remains troubling.

A new United Nations Environment Programme report published in October 2026 estimates that existing government policies could leave the world facing approximately 2.8°C of warming this century. Even if countries fully implement their current climate commitments, the projected warming is around 2.6°C.

Both outcomes are considerably above the Paris Agreement's temperature ambitions.

And on 4 November, just days before COP31, UNEP released another major report warning that international funding for climate adaptation remains dramatically below what developing countries need.

This creates the central question hanging over Antalya:

Can governments finally move from promising to doing?

COP31 is being presented as an implementation-focused summit. Rather than simply announcing another collection of ambitious targets, its organisers want countries, businesses and financial institutions to demonstrate how existing commitments can become real projects, infrastructure and measurable improvements.

Whether that ambition survives the difficult negotiations is another matter.

Key Takeaways

• COP31 takes place from 9–20 November 2026 in Antalya, Türkiye.
• Türkiye will host and preside over the conference, while Australia will lead the formal climate negotiations.
• The central theme is implementation: turning climate commitments into practical projects.
• The COP31 Action Agenda includes a voluntary target to increase electricity's share of global final energy consumption to 35% by 2035.
• UNEP estimates that developing countries will need approximately $305 billion annually for climate adaptation by 2035.
• Existing climate policies still put the world on a pathway towards approximately 2.8°C of warming this century.
• A second Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement will begin at COP31 and continue until 2028.
• The summit's success will depend on finance, political cooperation, measurable progress and the ability to translate announcements into action.

1. What exactly is COP31?

The letters COP stand for Conference of the Parties.

The parties are the countries that have signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, an international treaty established in 1992 during the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro.

The convention created a framework for international cooperation on climate change. Countries meet regularly to review scientific evidence, negotiate policies, discuss financial support and coordinate their responses to global warming.

The first COP took place in Berlin in 1995.

Since then, these annual meetings have become some of the world's most important international diplomatic gatherings.

COP21 in Paris in 2015 produced the Paris Agreement, one of the most significant international climate agreements ever negotiated.

COP26 in Glasgow focused attention on coal, emissions reductions and the commitments needed to keep the 1.5°C ambition alive.

COP27 in Egypt placed particular emphasis on financial support for countries experiencing climate-related losses.

COP28 in Dubai produced an important agreement calling for a transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems.

COP29 in Azerbaijan placed climate finance at the centre of negotiations.

COP30 in Brazil continued discussions about implementation, financial commitments and the transition to cleaner energy.

COP31 is the next stage of that process.

What happens during a COP conference?

It is tempting to imagine COP as one enormous meeting where presidents sit around a table and decide how to save the planet.

In reality, it is a complicated collection of negotiations, technical discussions, public events, business meetings and diplomatic conversations.

The official negotiations take place between country delegations.

These delegations discuss the wording of agreements, financial obligations, emissions targets, adaptation programmes and mechanisms for cooperation.

A single sentence can become the subject of hours of negotiation because countries may interpret its implications very differently.

For example, consider a proposal calling for countries to accelerate the transition away from coal.

A country that already generates most of its electricity from renewable sources may support strong language.

A country heavily dependent on coal for employment, industrial production and electricity may argue that a rapid transition could threaten its economy.

Another country might support the objective but insist that wealthy nations provide financial assistance to make the transition possible.

This is why climate negotiations are rarely straightforward.

Alongside the official negotiations, COP conferences include events involving businesses, research institutions, universities, investors, environmental organisations and community representatives.

These discussions matter because national governments cannot implement every climate solution independently.

A government might establish an ambitious renewable energy target, but private companies may need to build the power stations. Banks may need to finance them. Engineers must connect them to electricity networks. Local communities must be consulted.

COP31 is designed to bring these different actors into closer cooperation.

The UNFCCC describes implementation of climate solutions and the global energy transition as central priorities for the conference.

2. Why COP31 is different from previous climate summits

The most unusual feature of COP31 is its leadership arrangement.

For the first time in the conference's history, the host country's leadership and the formal negotiation leadership have been divided between two countries.

Türkiye will host the event and hold the COP presidency.

Australia will lead the official negotiations.

This arrangement emerged after both countries competed to host COP31. Neither withdrew its bid during the previous summit, creating a diplomatic impasse.

The eventual compromise divided responsibilities.

Türkiye: hosting and directing the Action Agenda

Türkiye will host the conference in Antalya.

Murat Kurum, Türkiye's Minister of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change, has been nominated as COP31 President.

Türkiye will also lead the Action Agenda, which focuses on practical climate initiatives involving governments, businesses, cities and other organisations.

Its priorities include:

• Clean energy and electrification.
• Reducing waste and methane emissions.
• Climate-resilient cities.
• Green industrialisation.
• Food security.
• Oceans and marine protection.
• Youth participation and education.
• Climate-resilient health systems.

The intention is to encourage practical cooperation rather than limiting the conference to diplomatic declarations.

Australia: leading the negotiations

Australia will take responsibility for leading the formal negotiations.

Australian Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen will serve as President of Negotiations.

This includes guiding discussions, coordinating negotiating processes and working with countries to develop possible agreements.

Australia's role is particularly interesting because the Pacific region is expected to have a prominent voice during COP31.

Small island countries have long warned that rising sea levels, coastal erosion and increasingly severe weather threaten their communities and economies.

For these countries, climate change is not simply an environmental issue. It concerns homes, national territory, food production, freshwater supplies and the future of entire populations.

The Türkiye-Australia arrangement therefore combines Mediterranean leadership with a stronger effort to bring Pacific concerns into the international climate conversation.

It also creates an unusual diplomatic challenge: the host country and the country directing negotiations must maintain a consistent approach even when their political priorities differ.

The official partnership arrangements explain how responsibilities are divided between the two countries.

3. The 1.5°C target: why the climate debate is becoming more urgent

One number appears repeatedly in climate discussions: 1.5°C.

It refers to the Paris Agreement's ambition to limit the rise in global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

That number might sound small.

After all, a difference of one or two degrees is barely noticeable when adjusting the temperature in a room.

But the global climate system is not a living room.

A change in the planet's average temperature affects oceans, atmospheric circulation, rainfall, agricultural conditions, glaciers, ecosystems and extreme weather risks.

A relatively small increase in the global average can produce much larger changes in particular regions.

Why does 1.5°C matter?

Consider a pot of water slowly approaching boiling point.

Increasing the temperature by one degree does not mean every part of the pot suddenly changes in the same way. However, the additional heat changes the conditions under which the entire system operates.

The climate system behaves differently, but the analogy helps explain why small changes in global averages can have substantial consequences.

At higher warming levels, scientists expect greater risks from:

• More intense heatwaves.
• Heavier rainfall and flooding in many regions.
• More severe agricultural stress in vulnerable areas.
• Continued sea-level rise.
• Greater pressure on water supplies.
• Increasing damage to coral reefs and ecosystems.
• Greater risks to human health and infrastructure.

The risks do not suddenly begin at precisely 1.5°C. They increase with every additional fraction of warming.

What does the latest 2026 report say?

UNEP's Emissions Gap Report 2026, published on 21 October, presents an especially serious assessment.

It finds that:

Climate pathway	Estimated warming
Current government policies	2.8°C
Full implementation of current national commitments	2.6°C
Most optimistic scenario including additional net-zero targets	2.1°C

These are projections for warming over this century, not temperature readings for a particular year.

The report also examines a possible pathway in which the world temporarily exceeds 1.5°C but limits the peak to approximately 1.7–1.8°C around mid-century before returning to 1.5°C or below by 2100.

That scenario has an estimated 50% chance of achieving the return target.

It would require substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions:

• An 18% reduction by 2030.
• A 45% reduction by 2035.
• A 69% reduction by 2040.

All are measured against 2025 emission levels.

The report also stresses that large-scale carbon dioxide removal would be necessary in this scenario.

This is an important distinction: the possibility of returning to 1.5°C later does not mean that overshooting the target is harmless or that future technology can simply repair all the damage.

It means that limiting the peak and shortening the period of overshoot still matters enormously.

The message for COP31 is difficult to ignore. Governments must reduce emissions much faster than their existing plans currently indicate.

Has the world already crossed 1.5°C?

This question requires careful explanation.

Individual months or years can temporarily exceed 1.5°C because of natural climate variability and other factors.

That does not automatically mean the Paris Agreement's long-term temperature threshold has been permanently crossed.

The Paris temperature goal concerns sustained warming over much longer periods, generally assessed using multi-decadal averages.

However, the latest UNEP assessment concludes that the world is now expected to exceed 1.5°C in the longer-term warming trajectory.

That makes the challenge more complicated than simply preventing the first crossing.

Governments must now consider how to minimise the overshoot, reduce peak temperatures and potentially return to the threshold later in the century.

This is one reason COP31 has attracted considerable attention before its opening day.

4. The clean energy transition: why electricity is central to COP31

One of the most important initiatives associated with COP31 is a voluntary global electrification target.

Türkiye's presidency wants electricity to supply 35% of global final energy consumption by 2035.

The current share is just over 20%.

This is sometimes described as the 35-by-35 target.

But what does electrification actually mean?

Imagine a household that uses petrol for its car, gas for cooking and heating, and electricity for lighting and appliances.

Electrification means replacing some of those activities with electricity.

A petrol-powered vehicle could become an electric vehicle.

A gas heating system could be replaced with an electric heat pump.

An industrial factory might replace certain fossil-fuel-powered processes with electric machinery.

The same principle can apply to transport, buildings and manufacturing.

The advantage is that electricity can be generated from different sources, including solar, wind, hydropower and nuclear energy.

As electricity generation becomes cleaner, electrifying more activities can reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

Why is 35% such an important target?

Electricity already plays a central role in modern life.

However, many activities still rely directly on burning fossil fuels.

Transport is one example.

Even in countries with growing renewable electricity production, cars, trucks, ships and aircraft continue to depend heavily on petroleum-based fuels.

Heating and industrial production also use substantial quantities of coal, oil and gas.

Electrification provides a way to change the energy system itself rather than simply replacing one power station with another.

It is similar to changing the infrastructure of a city.

Instead of trying to make every petrol station cleaner, a country can gradually build a transport system that depends more heavily on electricity.

But there is an important condition.

Electricity must also become cleaner.

An electric vehicle charged using electricity generated primarily from coal does not deliver the same emissions reductions as one charged using a low-carbon electricity grid.

Electrification and renewable energy must therefore develop together.

What other targets has Türkiye proposed?

The COP31 Action Agenda includes several measurable ambitions for 2035.

Area	Proposed target
Electrification	35% share of final energy consumption
Waste	Reduce projected growth in waste generation by 50%
Buildings	Reduce building-sector energy intensity by at least 25%
Circular materials	Reach at least 15% use in manufacturing and production

These are presidency-led global action targets, not automatically binding legal obligations on every country.

That distinction matters.

An international target can encourage investment, cooperation and policy development, but it does not guarantee that countries will achieve it.

The next challenge is to establish how progress will be measured and which organisations will take responsibility for delivering the necessary changes.

The official COP31 priorities describe these targets as part of the broader implementation agenda.

5. Renewable energy is growing, but the infrastructure must catch up

There is an encouraging side to the climate story.

Renewable energy is no longer a small experimental industry. Solar panels and wind turbines are now major components of electricity systems in many countries.

The International Energy Agency's Global Energy Review 2026 reports that worldwide renewable electricity capacity additions reached approximately 800 gigawatts in 2025, an increase of 16% compared with the previous year.

It was the twenty-third consecutive year in which renewable capacity additions established a new record.

Solar power accounted for more than three-quarters of the new capacity, while wind contributed approximately 20%.

Solar additions alone exceeded 600 GW for the first time.

These figures demonstrate how quickly the energy landscape is changing.

However, installing renewable power stations is only part of the challenge.

The electricity grid problem

Imagine a city where the government builds a new water reservoir but forgets to construct the pipes needed to distribute the water.

The reservoir might be enormous, but households would still experience shortages.

Renewable electricity faces a similar problem.

A country can build thousands of solar panels and wind turbines, but the electricity must travel through a reliable network to reach homes, factories and businesses.

Many electricity networks were designed around large conventional power stations that generate electricity in relatively predictable ways.

Solar and wind generation are different.

Solar panels produce more electricity during sunny periods, while wind turbines depend on wind conditions. Production can change throughout the day and across seasons.

Electricity systems therefore need modern transmission networks, better forecasting, flexible power generation and energy storage.

Without these improvements, renewable electricity can be wasted because the network cannot transport or use it when it is generated.

Why battery storage matters

Large batteries can store electricity when production is high and release it when demand increases.

Think of a battery as a water tank.

Instead of allowing every extra drop of water to disappear when the reservoir is full, the tank stores it for later.

The same principle applies to electricity.

Battery storage can help balance supply and demand, especially when solar generation falls in the evening.

Other storage technologies, including pumped hydropower, can also help electricity systems manage fluctuations.

But batteries are not a complete solution.

Different countries need different combinations of storage, transmission, flexible generation, demand management and regional electricity connections.

The economic opportunity

The transition is also creating opportunities for businesses.

Solar panel installation, wind turbine manufacturing, battery production, electrical engineering, grid construction and energy management require workers with different skills.

Countries that establish reliable industrial supply chains may attract investment and develop new export industries.

The IEA's renewable energy forecasts also suggest that the expansion will continue, although its speed will depend on policies, financing, grid access and project economics.

The important question for COP31 is whether governments can turn the rapid growth of renewable technologies into a reliable transformation of entire energy systems.

6. Climate finance: the enormous financial question facing COP31

Climate policy is often presented as a technological challenge.

Scientists develop new solutions. Engineers build renewable energy systems. Researchers improve batteries. Architects design more energy-efficient buildings.

But there is another question that can determine whether any of these solutions become reality:

Who pays?

A wealthy country can afford to modernise its electricity infrastructure, improve flood defences and invest in agricultural research more easily than a country facing high debt, limited government revenue and urgent development needs.

The financial differences between countries are one of the biggest sources of disagreement during international climate negotiations.

The $300 billion climate finance commitment

At COP29 in Baku in 2024, countries agreed to a new climate finance goal.

Developed countries are expected to take the lead in mobilising at least $300 billion annually for developing countries by 2035.

This is known as the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance.

The agreement also called on all actors to work together to scale up climate finance from public and private sources to at least $1.3 trillion annually by 2035.

These are two different financial ambitions.

The $300 billion goal is the central commitment for developed countries to take the lead in providing and mobilising finance.

The $1.3 trillion figure represents the wider ambition to mobilise finance from a much broader range of sources.

Those sources could include:

• Government grants.
• International development banks.
• Private investment.
• Commercial lending.
• Public-private partnerships.
• Guarantees and other financial instruments.
• Other international funding mechanisms.

The distinction is important because the larger figure does not mean that developed-country governments have promised to transfer $1.3 trillion directly to developing countries every year.

Much of the intended financing would involve different types of investment and financial cooperation.

Why are developing countries demanding more?

Consider a country that needs to construct stronger coastal protection, modernise its agricultural infrastructure and improve its water supply.

These projects may provide enormous long-term benefits.

However, they require money before those benefits can be realised.

A government that already spends a large proportion of its budget on debt repayments, healthcare, education and basic infrastructure may struggle to finance them.

International climate finance is intended to help close this gap.

Developing countries argue that wealthier industrialised nations have historically contributed a much larger share of accumulated greenhouse gas emissions and therefore have particular responsibilities to support climate action.

Wealthier countries, meanwhile, face their own budget pressures and disagreements over the form, distribution and accountability of financial assistance.

Another sensitive issue is the difference between grants and loans.

A grant does not generally have to be repaid.

A loan does.

If a country receives climate funding primarily through loans, it may end up increasing its debt while trying to protect its population from a crisis it contributed relatively little to creating.

This is why the quality of climate finance matters as much as its headline value.

The European Commission's explanation of the COP29 agreement outlines the $300 billion and $1.3 trillion goals and the different funding sources involved.

7. The adaptation crisis: preparing for climate change that is already happening

Reducing emissions is essential, but even the most ambitious emissions reductions cannot immediately reverse all the climate changes already underway.

Communities must also prepare for the consequences.

This is called climate adaptation.

Adaptation involves changing infrastructure, agriculture, water systems, buildings and public services to reduce vulnerability to climate-related hazards.

Examples include:

• Constructing flood protection systems.
• Improving drainage in cities.
• Developing drought-resistant agricultural varieties.
• Modernising irrigation systems.
• Creating heat-resistant public infrastructure.
• Restoring mangrove forests and coastal ecosystems.
• Developing early-warning systems for dangerous weather.
• Improving access to drinking water.

A city that experiences severe flooding every few years may need stronger drainage, better urban planning and protected transport infrastructure.

A farming region experiencing longer dry periods may need improved water management and crops better suited to changing conditions.

These are not abstract environmental projects. They are investments in the ability of societies to function.

UNEP's new Adaptation Gap Report 2026

One of the most important developments immediately before COP31 was the publication of UNEP's 2026 Adaptation Gap Report, titled Ready? Not.

Released on 4 November, it presents a worrying picture of the financial resources available for climate adaptation.

The report estimates that international public adaptation finance from developed countries to developing countries reached between $28.2 billion and $31.7 billion in 2024.

That represented an increase of approximately $1 billion compared with 2023.

But the estimated annual adaptation finance needs of developing countries could reach approximately $305 billion by 2035.

The difference is enormous.

Even if the COP30 ambition to triple international public adaptation finance by 2035 is achieved, UNEP estimates that this would cover only around 20–29% of the projected needs.

The report also notes that the estimated $305 billion figure largely excludes the private sector's own adaptation requirements, which could almost double the overall figure.

In other words, the financial challenge may be even larger than the headline number suggests.

Why is adaptation finance so difficult?

Some adaptation projects do not generate an obvious commercial return.

Consider a drainage system designed to prevent flooding in a low-income neighbourhood.

The project might save thousands of families from losing their homes, protect roads and prevent business interruptions.

But it does not necessarily generate a regular income for investors.

A commercial company may find it easier to finance a solar power station that sells electricity than a public drainage system that protects an entire community.

This is why governments and international development institutions play an important role.

They can finance infrastructure that produces significant social and economic benefits even when private investors have little incentive to fund it independently.

The challenge is to make funding available, affordable and accessible.

The loss and damage problem

Adaptation is about reducing future risks and preparing for changing conditions.

But what happens when damage has already occurred?

A flood can destroy houses, roads, farms and businesses. A prolonged drought can damage agricultural livelihoods. Rising sea levels can make certain coastal areas increasingly difficult to inhabit.

These impacts are discussed under the international concept of loss and damage.

The Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage was established to help vulnerable developing countries address climate-related harm.

However, its resources remain limited compared with the scale of identified needs.

UNEP's November 2026 report notes that the fund's first funding round generated requests worth approximately $2.8 billion, compared with an initial funding envelope of $342 million.

This illustrates the difference between recognising a problem and having enough resources to address it.

At COP31, governments will face pressure to improve adaptation finance, make funding easier to access and strengthen the mechanisms that support countries experiencing serious climate-related damage.

The new UNEP report is particularly important because it was released only five days before the conference opens.

8. Fossil fuels: the issue that climate negotiations cannot avoid

Solar panels, electric vehicles and wind turbines are expanding.

But the global economy still depends heavily on coal, oil and natural gas.

These fuels power industries, transport systems, electricity generation and heating.

They also remain deeply connected to employment, government revenues, international trade and national energy security.

This makes the transition away from fossil fuels one of the most politically difficult parts of climate diplomacy.

What happened at COP28?

At COP28 in Dubai in 2023, countries agreed to language calling for a transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems.

The agreement was significant because fossil fuels had become an increasingly explicit subject of international climate negotiations.

However, it did not establish a single legally binding timetable requiring every country to stop using coal, oil and gas by a specified date.

Countries have different energy systems, economic structures and development priorities.

Some rely heavily on coal for electricity.

Others depend on oil and gas exports for government revenue.

Developing countries also argue that they need affordable energy to expand industrial production, improve living standards and provide electricity to populations that still lack reliable access.

What happened at COP30?

The issue remained controversial during COP30 in Belém, Brazil.

Although many countries supported stronger language on transitioning away from fossil fuels, the final political package did not contain the explicit fossil fuel wording sought by those governments and campaigners.

This left an important disagreement unresolved.

The question was no longer simply whether the transition should happen.

It was how countries could develop a credible, fair and practical pathway for achieving it.

The new roadmaps published on 3 November 2026

Just days before COP31, the Brazilian COP30 presidency published two international roadmaps.

The first focuses on transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems.

The second focuses on halting and reversing deforestation and forest degradation by 2030.

The fossil fuel roadmap explores how countries can assess their dependence on fossil fuels and organise a transition around three broad areas:

1. Energy demand.
2. Energy supply.
3. The wider economy.

This is important because reducing fossil fuel consumption requires more than closing individual power stations.

A country must also consider how its factories operate, how people travel, how electricity is produced and how workers and communities dependent on fossil fuel industries will be supported.

The roadmaps were developed through international consultation, including contributions from governments and other stakeholders.

However, there is a crucial qualification.

They are voluntary, non-prescriptive contributions from the COP30 presidency. They are not binding agreements negotiated and adopted by all countries.

They are intended to provide practical guidance and encourage cooperation rather than impose a universal legal timetable.

This distinction will matter during COP31.

Countries may welcome the roadmaps, disagree with aspects of them or use them as a starting point for further discussions.

Whether they become the foundation of stronger international action remains uncertain.

9. The just transition: what happens to workers when industries change?

Imagine a town whose economy depends almost entirely on a coal mine.

The mine provides jobs.

Local shops depend on the workers' salaries. Families have built their lives around the industry. Local government receives revenue from the economic activity.

Now imagine that the mine is scheduled to close as part of a national transition towards cleaner energy.

The environmental benefits may be substantial, but the town could face unemployment, declining business activity and economic uncertainty.

This is the problem addressed by the concept of a just transition.

A just transition means ensuring that the movement towards a lower-carbon economy does not leave workers, communities and vulnerable populations behind.

It recognises that economic transformation has human consequences.

What could a just transition involve?

It could include:

• Retraining workers for employment in renewable energy industries.
• Supporting businesses in communities dependent on fossil fuel production.
• Investing in new industries and infrastructure.
• Providing social protection during economic restructuring.
• Ensuring affordable energy remains accessible.
• Consulting workers and local communities before major changes.
• Creating opportunities for younger generations.

The transition must also consider countries at different stages of development.

A wealthy economy with advanced infrastructure may have more resources to replace fossil fuel industries.

A lower-income country may need international finance, technical expertise and additional time to restructure its economy.

The principle is not that every country must follow exactly the same pathway.

It is that the transition should be organised in a way that is fair, practical and economically sustainable.

What is expected at COP31?

A just transition mechanism was agreed to be developed at COP30.

The objective is to strengthen international cooperation and provide technical support to countries and communities undergoing economic transformation.

However, questions remain about how this mechanism should work, how it will be governed and what kind of support it will provide.

These questions are expected to form part of the COP31 discussions.

The issue is particularly important because climate policies will struggle to maintain public support if people believe they are being asked to bear the costs while receiving few of the benefits.

A successful transition must create opportunities, not simply remove existing economic activities.

10. Turkey's own energy transition: an important test for the host country

Hosting a climate conference places a country under international attention.

The host is expected to demonstrate leadership and encourage cooperation.

But Türkiye itself faces the same complicated energy questions being discussed in Antalya.

On 5 November 2026, Türkiye's Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar presented a National Energy Plan 2040.

The plan describes a substantial expansion of electrification and cleaner energy infrastructure.

According to reporting by the Associated Press and Reuters, the government envisages approximately $500 billion in energy investment through 2040.

The strategy includes a major expansion of solar and wind capacity, greater electrification and an increase in electric vehicle adoption.

The reported ambition also includes a 40% emissions reduction by 2040 and a substantial increase in the contribution of electricity to the country's energy system.

But the announcement also highlights a contradiction.

Coal continues to play an important role in Türkiye's electricity system. The Associated Press reported that coal accounts for approximately 33% of the country's electricity, while solar and wind together contribute nearly 23%.

The energy minister has also indicated that natural gas will continue to form part of the country's energy security strategy.

Reuters noted that the $500 billion announcement did not provide extensive details about individual projects or their funding sources.

This is not unique to Türkiye.

Many governments support renewable energy expansion while also trying to maintain affordable electricity, protect domestic industries and ensure reliable energy supplies.

The important question is whether investment plans will produce measurable emissions reductions rather than simply increasing energy infrastructure.

For COP31, Türkiye's own policies will provide an interesting example of the difficulties involved in turning ambitious climate language into a national energy strategy.

11. The second Global Stocktake: measuring whether the world is actually making progress

One of the most important processes beginning at COP31 is the second Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement.

The name sounds technical, but the idea is relatively simple.

Imagine a student who receives a report card every few years.

The report card does not merely ask what the student promised to achieve. It examines actual performance, identifies weaknesses and considers what needs to change.

The Global Stocktake performs a similar function for the international climate system.

It examines whether countries collectively are making enough progress towards the objectives of the Paris Agreement.

What happened during the first Global Stocktake?

The first Global Stocktake concluded at COP28 in Dubai in 2023.

It assessed global progress and helped establish the direction of future international climate action.

Its conclusions highlighted the need for faster emissions reductions, stronger renewable energy deployment, improved energy efficiency and greater support for adaptation.

It also helped establish the political basis for the agreement on transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems.

However, identifying what needs to happen and making it happen are two different things.

The first stocktake showed that the world was not on track to achieve its long-term climate objectives.

The second stocktake will examine what has happened since then.

What will happen between 2026 and 2028?

According to the UNFCCC, the second Global Stocktake will begin at COP31 in November 2026 and conclude at COP33 in November 2028.

It covers the period from 2024 to 2028.

The process has three main components:

1. Information collection and preparation

Countries and other participants provide information about climate policies, emissions, financial support, adaptation programmes and progress towards international commitments.

2. Technical assessment

Experts examine the available evidence to assess collective progress towards the Paris Agreement's goals.

This includes identifying areas where existing action is insufficient and opportunities for stronger cooperation.

3. Consideration of outputs

Countries discuss what the findings mean for future climate policies and international cooperation.

The results are intended to inform future national climate commitments.

Why is this important?

The Global Stocktake creates a mechanism for looking beyond political announcements.

A government might announce a target to reduce emissions by 40% over a certain period.

But has the country introduced the necessary policies?

Has it built renewable energy capacity?

Have emissions actually fallen?

Has the government allocated sufficient funding?

Are the changes measurable?

These are the types of questions that make international climate assessments meaningful.

The second stocktake is also important because the world is entering a period in which the gap between climate ambitions and actual results is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

It will not automatically force countries to adopt new policies. However, it can provide the scientific and political foundation for stronger commitments.

The official UNFCCC timetable confirms the November 2026–November 2028 process.

12. Why COP31 matters to Africa and Morocco

Although the conference is taking place in Türkiye, its discussions are especially important for African countries.

Africa contributes a comparatively small share of historical global greenhouse gas emissions but faces substantial climate vulnerabilities.

Many African economies depend heavily on agriculture, natural resources and climate-sensitive infrastructure.

Droughts, changing rainfall patterns, extreme heat and flooding can therefore affect employment, food production, water availability and economic development.

At the same time, the continent has significant opportunities in renewable energy, including solar, wind, hydropower and other clean energy technologies.

This creates a difficult combination of risks and opportunities.

Water security is one of the biggest concerns

For many African countries, climate adaptation is closely connected to water management.

Agriculture depends on reliable water supplies.

Cities need sufficient drinking water.

Industries require water for production.

Electricity systems can also depend on water availability, particularly where hydropower plays an important role.

When rainfall becomes unreliable, the effects can spread across the economy.

A drought does not simply mean that farmers produce less food.

It can also affect food prices, rural employment, government revenue, migration patterns and the financial stability of agricultural businesses.

This is why adaptation finance is particularly important for African countries.

Investments in water infrastructure, irrigation efficiency, flood protection and agricultural resilience can protect economic development as well as the environment.

The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa has identified accessible climate finance, adaptation, loss and damage and a fair energy transition as major African priorities for COP31.

What does this mean for Morocco?

Morocco provides an interesting example of the relationship between climate adaptation and economic development.

The country has experienced prolonged drought conditions and increasing pressure on its water resources.

Water availability affects agriculture, rural livelihoods, drinking water supplies and industrial development.

The World Bank's Morocco Country Climate and Development Report identifies three major priorities:

1. Tackling water scarcity and drought.
2. Improving resilience to floods.
3. Decarbonising the economy.

The report also estimates that approximately $78 billion in investment, expressed in present-dollar value, would be required to put Morocco on a resilient, low-carbon development pathway by the 2050s.

That figure illustrates the scale of the transformation involved.

It also identifies opportunities in solar and wind power, green industrial development and private-sector investment.

For Morocco, international climate discussions are therefore not simply about reducing emissions.

They are also about protecting water resources, improving agricultural resilience, modernising infrastructure and developing industries that can compete in a changing global economy.

The connection between renewable energy and economic development

Morocco has geographical advantages for renewable energy production.

Its solar resources create opportunities for large-scale photovoltaic and concentrated solar power projects.

Wind resources offer further potential.

But renewable energy expansion requires investment in transmission infrastructure, storage, industrial capacity and reliable electricity distribution.

It also raises questions about how local communities benefit from new projects and how the transition creates employment.

These issues are relevant to the broader COP31 discussions about electrification, finance and green industrialisation.

For African countries, the objective should not simply be to import clean technologies.

It should also be to develop local expertise, build productive industries, improve energy access and create employment.

A successful international climate agreement should make those opportunities more accessible.

The World Bank's country assessment provides further detail on Morocco's climate and development priorities.

13. The political challenges that could limit COP31

Climate negotiations do not take place in isolation.

They are influenced by international politics, economic competition, national elections, energy markets and disagreements about responsibility.

COP31 will face several of these challenges.

The absence of the United States government

One particularly important development is the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement at the beginning of 2026.

According to the Council on Foreign Relations, the United States will not send an official federal delegation to COP31.

However, members of Congress and American businesses are still expected to participate.

This matters because the United States has played an important role in international climate diplomacy and is a major source of historical greenhouse gas emissions.

Its absence from the official negotiations could make certain discussions more difficult, particularly those involving international finance and emissions commitments.

It does not mean that all American climate activity has stopped.

States, cities, businesses, universities and other organisations can continue pursuing climate-related initiatives independently.

But the absence of the federal government changes the diplomatic environment.

Energy security versus climate ambition

Another challenge is the relationship between climate policies and energy security.

Governments must keep electricity affordable and reliable.

They must also protect their economies from sudden disruptions.

If international energy markets experience instability, governments may become more cautious about policies that could increase costs or create shortages.

Countries that depend on fossil fuel exports may also resist rapid changes that threaten government revenues.

These disagreements can make it difficult to establish common international positions.

The question of responsibility

Developing countries often argue that they should not be expected to follow the same transition pathway as wealthy industrialised economies.

Their argument is that countries which developed through decades of fossil fuel consumption have greater historical responsibility and greater financial capacity.

Wealthier countries may agree that financial support is necessary while disagreeing about how much they should contribute, which countries should receive assistance and how the money should be distributed.

These are not minor details.

They determine whether international commitments can be implemented.

The negotiations will also be affected by concerns about economic competitiveness, public spending and the future of energy-intensive industries.

The challenge for COP31 will be to find areas of agreement without pretending that these differences do not exist.

14. What will happen during the twelve days of COP31?

The conference has a programme organised around twelve thematic days.

This structure is intended to give different areas of climate action dedicated attention.

The published programme is particularly useful because it shows how broad the discussions will be.

Date	Main theme
9 November	Food, agriculture and health
10 November	Energy and transport
11 November	Zero waste and World Leaders' Summit
12 November	Resilient cities and built environment
13 November	Finance and trade
14 November	Children, youth, education and skills
15 November	Cultural and social programmes
16 November	Science, industry and technology
17 November	Oceans, seas, nature and land use
18 November	Human and social development
19 November	Improving implementation
20 November	Final negotiations

The World Leaders' Summit takes place on 11 and 12 November.

These discussions are expected to attract particular attention because heads of state and government will have an opportunity to communicate their national priorities and discuss international cooperation.

The finance and trade day on 13 November will be especially relevant to the financial disagreements surrounding the conference.

The science, industry and technology day on 16 November will provide an opportunity to discuss the technologies and industrial changes needed for climate implementation.

The final day is dedicated to completing negotiations and working towards agreed outcomes.

It is worth remembering that the thematic programme and the formal negotiating timetable are not the same thing.

The thematic days organise the wider programme of discussions and events. They do not mean that all formal negotiations on a particular subject are limited to one day.

The official COP31 programme provides the complete schedule.

15. What would count as a successful COP31?

It is easy to measure a climate summit by the number of declarations published or the number of world leaders attending.

But these measurements do not necessarily reveal whether the conference has made meaningful progress.

A successful COP31 would need to deliver results that can be followed after the delegates leave Antalya.

Several areas deserve particular attention.

1. Clearer financial commitments

Governments should provide greater clarity about how existing climate finance commitments will be delivered.

That includes the distinction between grants, loans, private investment and other forms of financial support.

Developing countries need predictable funding rather than vague promises that may take years to become accessible.

2. Progress on adaptation

The latest UNEP report demonstrates that adaptation finance remains far below estimated requirements.

COP31 should encourage governments and financial institutions to address this gap.

It should also focus on practical barriers that prevent countries from accessing available funding.

3. Measurable energy transition progress

The 35-by-35 electrification target is ambitious.

However, progress should be measured through actual changes in energy consumption, renewable electricity production, grid infrastructure and fossil fuel dependence.

A target should not become a substitute for evidence.

4. Stronger support for vulnerable communities

Climate policies should consider workers, farmers, small businesses and communities that face the greatest economic risks.

A successful transition must be socially sustainable.

5. Better international cooperation

Countries do not need identical energy systems or development strategies.

But they need mechanisms that allow them to cooperate on shared problems.

This includes financing, research, technology transfer, infrastructure development and climate risk information.

6. Accountability beyond the conference

One of the recurring criticisms of international climate summits is that governments make commitments but fail to implement them.

COP31 should strengthen the connection between international targets and domestic policies.

That means better reporting, transparent progress measurements and meaningful follow-up.

The second Global Stocktake provides an opportunity to assess collective progress over the coming years.

The ultimate test will be what happens between COP31 and the next major climate meetings.

16. What does all this mean for ordinary people?

Climate negotiations can seem distant from everyday life.

Most people are not directly involved in international diplomatic discussions.

They are more concerned with paying household bills, finding employment, buying food, travelling to work and ensuring that their families have access to reliable services.

Yet climate policy can influence all of these areas.

Electricity and household expenses

Investment in renewable energy, electricity networks and storage can influence the long-term cost and reliability of electricity.

However, the transition is not automatically cheap in every country or at every stage.

Building infrastructure requires substantial upfront investment.

The eventual effect on household bills depends on electricity market structures, financing arrangements, fuel prices, government policy and how costs are distributed.

Food prices and agriculture

Droughts, heat stress and changing rainfall can affect agricultural production.

If harvests decline, food supply chains may face pressure.

Climate-resilient agriculture can help reduce some of these risks through improved irrigation, crop varieties, soil management and agricultural planning.

This is why agriculture appears so prominently in the COP31 programme.

Jobs and business opportunities

The transition creates demand for engineers, electricians, technicians, construction workers, researchers and specialists in energy management.

It can also create new business opportunities in manufacturing, recycling, transport and infrastructure.

However, industries that depend heavily on fossil fuels may experience economic disruption.

The challenge is to create new opportunities while supporting workers and communities affected by structural change.

Cities and housing

Climate adaptation also affects the design of everyday places.

Better building insulation can reduce energy demand.

Improved drainage can reduce flood damage.

Urban trees and green spaces can help reduce local heat exposure.

More efficient public transport can reduce congestion and pollution.

These changes may not appear dramatic individually, but they can improve the quality and resilience of urban life.

Water security

For countries experiencing drought, reliable water supplies are directly connected to economic stability.

Better water infrastructure, reduced leakage, improved irrigation and more effective planning can help communities manage increasing pressure on resources.

This is especially relevant in water-stressed parts of Africa, the Middle East and the Mediterranean.

In this sense, climate action is not only about protecting distant ecosystems.

It is also about maintaining the basic systems on which modern societies depend.

17. What we know — and what remains uncertain

As of Friday, 6 November 2026, several important facts are already established.

What is known:

• COP31 will take place in Antalya from 9 to 20 November.
• Türkiye will host and lead the presidency.
• Australia will lead the formal negotiations.
• The conference has an implementation-focused Action Agenda.
• The presidency has proposed measurable 2035 targets for electrification, waste, buildings and circular materials.
• UNEP's latest reports identify major gaps in emissions reductions and adaptation finance.
• The second Global Stocktake will begin at COP31 and continue through 2028.
• New voluntary international roadmaps on fossil fuel transition and deforestation were published on 3 November.

What remains uncertain:

• Whether countries will agree on stronger formal language about fossil fuel transitions.
• Whether adaptation finance will receive additional commitments.
• How the just transition mechanism will operate in practice.
• Whether governments will resolve disagreements over climate finance.
• How the presidency's voluntary targets will be translated into measurable action.
• Whether the negotiations will produce sufficiently strong outcomes to improve the global emissions trajectory.

It is important not to confuse announcements with results.

The conference has not yet opened, so its final negotiated outcomes cannot be known on 6 November.

Some of its most important developments may emerge only during the final days of negotiations.

Others may take months or years to become visible.

This is why the conference should be judged not only by what governments say in Antalya, but also by what they subsequently implement.

Conclusion: The real test begins after Antalya

The climate conversation has changed considerably over the past decade.

In the early years of international climate diplomacy, much of the discussion focused on recognising the problem, establishing scientific understanding and negotiating shared objectives.

Today, the world has access to technologies and policies that can already reduce emissions, improve energy efficiency and strengthen climate resilience.

Solar power has expanded dramatically. Wind energy is increasingly competitive. Electric vehicles are becoming established in major markets. Governments have developed more sophisticated approaches to climate adaptation.

Yet the latest scientific and financial assessments show that progress remains insufficient.

The world is facing a growing emissions gap, an enormous adaptation financing shortage and difficult disagreements about how the economic transition should be organised.

COP31 arrives at a moment when these problems can no longer be treated as distant concerns.

Its emphasis on implementation is therefore appropriate.

But implementation requires more than a conference theme.

It requires money, infrastructure, technical expertise, credible national policies and political cooperation.

It also requires recognising that different countries have different starting points and that the costs of climate change are not distributed equally.

For ordinary people, the eventual outcomes will be visible in places far removed from diplomatic meeting rooms: in the reliability of electricity, the affordability of food, the availability of water, the resilience of homes and the opportunities available in changing economies.

Antalya will not solve the climate crisis in twelve days.

That was never a realistic expectation.

But it can help determine whether the international community is prepared to take the next difficult steps.

The world has already spent decades making promises.

The question now is whether it can demonstrate that those promises mean something.

And perhaps the most important measure of COP31 will not be the speeches delivered during its opening ceremony, but the practical changes that can still be seen years after the conference has ended.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. When does COP31 take place in 2026?

COP31 takes place from 9 to 20 November 2026 in Antalya, Türkiye. The World Leaders' Summit is scheduled for 11 and 12 November.

2. What does COP31 stand for?

COP31 stands for the 31st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It is the annual international meeting where countries negotiate and coordinate action on climate change.

3. Why is COP31 being held in Türkiye rather than Australia?

Türkiye and Australia initially competed to host the conference. They eventually agreed to divide responsibilities. Türkiye hosts the conference and leads the presidency, while Australia leads the formal negotiations.

4. What is the main objective of COP31?

The main objective is to accelerate implementation of existing climate commitments. Discussions will cover renewable energy, electrification, climate finance, adaptation, fossil fuel transitions, methane reduction and support for vulnerable countries.

5. What is the 35-by-35 climate target?

It is a voluntary COP31 presidency initiative aiming to increase electricity's share of global final energy consumption to 35% by 2035, compared with just over 20% today. It encourages greater electrification of transport, buildings and industry.

6. How much money do developing countries need for climate adaptation?

UNEP's 2026 Adaptation Gap Report estimates that developing countries will need approximately $305 billion annually by 2035 for climate adaptation. Current international public adaptation finance flows are considerably lower.

7. Can COP31 stop global warming from exceeding 1.5°C?

The latest UNEP assessment indicates that exceeding 1.5°C is now expected. However, it examines possible pathways to limit the overshoot and eventually return to 1.5°C or below by 2100. Achieving this would require exceptionally rapid emissions reductions and substantial carbon dioxide removal.

COP31 cannot achieve this alone, but it can contribute to stronger international cooperation and implementation.

8. Will COP31 produce a legally binding agreement to end fossil fuel use?

That is not guaranteed. The summit will discuss emissions reductions and the transition away from fossil fuels, but countries have different positions on the timing, financing and responsibilities involved. The recently published fossil fuel transition roadmap is voluntary and is not itself a binding international agreement.

9. Why should people outside the climate industry care about COP31?

Because climate policies affect electricity, transport, food production, water supplies, employment, industrial investment and the resilience of cities.

The decisions made during international climate negotiations can influence national policies and investments that affect everyday life.

10. What happens after COP31?

The next steps include implementing negotiated decisions, reporting progress, developing national climate policies and continuing the second Global Stocktake through 2028. COP32 and COP33 will provide further opportunities to review international progress.

Sources and Further Reading

The article draws on official United Nations publications, scientific assessments, international energy research, policy analysis and reporting published around the beginning of November 2026.

1. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
   About COP31 — dates, objectives, participants and leadership
2. United Nations — 5 November 2026
   COP31 explained: What's at stake at this year's UN climate summit
3. United Nations Environment Programme — 21 October 2026
   Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return
4. United Nations Environment Programme — 4 November 2026
   Adaptation Gap Report 2026: As the world heads for overshoot of 1.5°C, adaptation is too slow
5. International Energy Agency — 2026
   Global Energy Review 2026: Solar PV and wind
6. COP30 Brazilian Presidency — 3 November 2026
   International roadmaps for transitioning away from fossil fuels and halting deforestation
7. UNFCCC — Second Global Stocktake
   The second Global Stocktake: 2026–2028
8. Council on Foreign Relations — 5 November 2026
   COP31 in Turkey: What to Expect at the 2026 UN Climate Summit
9. European Commission
   International Climate Finance: The New Collective Quantified Goal
10. World Bank
    Morocco Country Climate and Development Report
11. United Nations Economic Commission for Africa
    Africa at COP31: Climate justice, adaptation and implementation

Photo Credits

• Photo 1 — Antalya coastline: Funda Izgi, Pexels. Original photograph. Direct image URL.
• Photo 2 — Renewable energy farm: Kindel Media, Pexels. Original photograph. Direct image URL.

Editorial note: This article reflects information available on 6 November 2026, before COP31 opens. Its final negotiating outcomes and subsequent announcements are not presented as established facts. All photographs are real photographs, not AI-generated illustrations.